We've plugged in our crystal ball to foretell the future in terms of evolving consumer trends for 2010. Well actually the information comes from the experts that carefully monitor such behaviour to predict the more likely movements. Be aware that such trends don't start on January 1, most have already started to evolve. There are many more trends than just the ten we will be putting forward over the next two e-Sights, however, we felt these would represent the greatest interest for our readers.
We tossed up between offering you all the trends at once as a summary vs. a slightly more detailed version and split them over two submissions. We opted for the later which allows you control of the amount of information you retain or skip over.
Also, keep in mind trends don't apply to all consumers, yours may be an industry that has more or less trend influence at any given time.
To refresh your mind at the end, we have a selection of this year's 'Superbowl' ads we found entertaining, and trust they do likewise for you.
1. Business As Unusual
Ruthless capitalism went out of fashion way before the crisis hit...
This year, prepare for 'business as unusual'. For the first time, there's a global understanding, if not a feeling of urgency that sustainability, in every possible meaning of the word, is the only way forward. How that should or shouldn't impact consumer societies is of course still part of a raging debate, but at least there is a debate. Meanwhile, in mature consumer societies, companies will have to do more than just embrace the notion of being a good corporate citizen.
To truly prosper, they will have to 'move with the culture'. This may mean displaying greater transparency and honesty, or having conversations as opposed to one-way advertising, or championing collaboration instead of an us-them mentality. Or, it could be intrinsically about generosity versus greed, or being a bit edgy and daring as opposed to safe and bland.
As always, the future is unevenly distributed: one only needs to look at the Googles and the Amazons and the Zappos and the Virgins of this world to get a feel for 'business as unusual'. So not surprisingly, the trends in this e-Sight all touch on doing things differently, driven by changing consumer preferences and desires. Time to study and learn from those brands that you think are already mirroring today's more diverse, chaotic, networked society, and then outdo them.
2. Urbany
A defining trend for 2010, 2011, 2012, and so on: urbanization on steroids. We'll let the numbers speak for themselves:
• Less than 5 per cent of the world's population lived in cities a century ago. In 2008, for the first time in humanity, that figure exceeded 50 per cent. In the last two decades alone, the urban population of the developing world has grown by an average of 3 million people per week.
• By 2050, it will have reached 70 per cent, representing 6.4 billion people. Most of this growth will be taking place in developing regions; Asia will host 63 percent of the global urban population, or 3.3 billion people in 2050." (Source: the Global Report on Human Settlements 2009, October 2009.)
Where will this lead us? We've dubbed this extreme push towards urbanization 'URBANY', representing a global consumer arena inhabited by billions of experienced and newly-minted urbanites. The significance?
A forever-growing number of more sophisticated, more demanding, but also more try-out-prone, super-wired urban consumers are snapping up more 'daring' goods, services, experiences, campaigns and conversations. And thanks to near-total online transparency of the latest and greatest, those consumers opting to remain in rural areas will be tempted to act (and shop) online like urban consumers, too.
This of course creates fertile grounds for B2C brands keen on pushing the innovation envelope in any possible way. As Alex Steffen, editor of WorldChanging stated:
"I'm certainly not saying that all innovation is urban, or that the suburbs are brain dead or anything. I am saying that compact, wired and wealthy urban communities seem to me to be becoming the epicentres of innovation these days, and that is going to change what innovations emerge."
Urban Pride (Subtrend)
Preparing for URBANY and more sophisticated consumers is one thing, running with this trend is another. So here's a hands-on subtrend to get you going: URBAN PRIDE.
Basically, in thriving mega-cities, whose economic and cultural power already often surpass that of entire nations, inhabitants' identities will be closely tied to a city's culture, its brand, its heritage, its 'being'.
This means that for big brands, delivering city-specific products, services and communications that truly incorporate a city's character, will be a great, human and fun way to pay respect to urban citizens around the world.
So, this year and beyond, you basically can't go wrong to appeal to urbanites' pride. Some random examples:
• The Absolut Cities Series first launched in New Orleans, when the brand developed a special mango and black pepper blend inspired by the city. Later, Absolut rolled out the City Series to Los Angeles, and in August 2009, Absolut released the taste of Boston - a black tea and elderflower vodka that has a backdrop reminiscent of Fenway Park's Green Monster.
• Since August 2009, people using five Bank Machine ATMs in East London have been able to opt to have their prompts and options given to them in Cockney rhyming slang.
• Guerlain launched a series of city-themed perfumes in July 2009, exclusively available at UK department store Harrods for GBP 130. Paris - Moscow is a combination of musk, fruit and wood; Paris - New York mixes vanilla, cinnamon and cedar; and jasmine, violet and green tea combine to create Paris - Tokyo.
3. Real-time Reviews
In short, with even more people sharing, in real time, everything they do*, buy, listen to, watch, attend, wear and so on, and with even more search engines and tracking services making it easy to find and group these 'live dispatches' by theme, topic or brand, this year will see ready-to-buy consumers tapping into a live stream of (first-hand) experiences from fellow consumers.
* As more people are reviewing and contributing, the sheer mass of opinions will lead to a real-time stream of information, findable and viewable to all. In addition, online access and device convergence will allow more on-the-spot reviews. Twitter is the much-deserved poster child for real-time reviews: it has established itself as the real-time snapshot of what people are thinking/feeling/experiencing and yes, reviewing, around the world.
Next: Just because they can (Twitter's Direct Messages come to mind), consumers who will need more specifics after reading a review will want to get in direct touch with the reviewer. And because of the self-selecting nature of Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn, these direct conversations will actually be welcomed by the reviewer, too. By posting reviews for his peers, he or she is almost angling for a follow-up. This will lead to real conversations between like-minded customers and potential buyers, without the brand even being able to monitor what's being said about its products, let alone being able to respond.
So expect numerous services to capitalize on this burgeoning 'global brain', and its endless real-time reviews and verdicts. Just one example:
• EezeeRator is a free travel companion from French Air Valid that allows passengers to post airline reviews while in flight. Travellers need only download the application for their Android handset or iPhone. With an on-board wifi connection, they can then use the application to search for airline and flight information, post reviews, and send messages, tweets and pictures in real-time from their phones. All messages are moderated by the EezeeRator team, and a GPS function confirms that users are where they say they are.
Oh, and how to deal with REAL-TIME REVIEWS? Either outperform so reviews will be positive, or adopt a radical 'beta-mindset' which means you involve customers in your development processes from day one, eliminating the possibility of out-of-the-blue bad reviews upon launch.
4. (F)LUXURY
Luxury. Is it a family of six? Owning a SUB instead of a SUV? Needing nothing at all? You decide. This year, luxury, and what it means to a bewildering number of 'consumer segments', will remain in flux.
So how will luxury brands fare over the next 12 months? What will define luxury over the next few years? The answer is 'luxury will be whatever you want it to be'. After all, what constitutes luxury is closely related to what constitutes scarcity. And, beyond the basic needs, scarcity is in the eye of the beholder, especially those beholders who are desperately trying to be unique.
Now that there are so many more ways to be unique than just buy the biggest and the most expensive, how about luxury constituting:
Anything commissioned? Providing 'access'? Secrets? Stories? Time with one's loved ones? Time for oneself? All things local? Peace and quiet, if not escape? Eco-friendly? Human-friendly? Animal-friendly? Caring? Empathy? Perks? Craft? Friends? Having a larger-than-life perspective? Households of six or more? An audience? Eccentricity? Appointment-only? Relevant information? Extreme personalization? Not having or wanting to consume? Being opinionated? Anything premium? Curation if not the absence of any kind of choice? Philanthropy? Bespoke goods and services? Knowledge? Skills? Frugality? Health? Etiquette & manners? Or a mix of any of these?
So don't worry about missing out on the next big thing in luxury, focus on defining it. How? By finding and coining the right (status) trigger for the right audience. Just declare that the end is nigh for anything that's getting a little too affordable, too accessible, too polluting, or just too well known. Then introduce something very different (if not the opposite), appealing to the in-crowds who are ready to jump ship anyway.
p.s. We're not saying 'traditional' luxury is going to disappear. Case in point: LIMITED LOCATIONS, a (F)LUXURY subtrend that ties in nicely with aforementioned URBAN PRIDE.
Limited Locations (Subtrend)
We know you all know about limited editions as an enduring luxury-strategy; it is an easy way to appeal to consumers' need for exclusivity and scarcity, amidst a 'Sea of Sameness'. So why not introduce LIMITED LOCATIONS to extend the scarcity theme to the distribution channel?
This year, just sell something special, something premium, something desirable in just one (geographical) location. Which means forgoing a chain-wide rollout or selling to all from a borderless e-shop. The limitation this will put on distribution opportunities will be compensated for by enthusiasm, PR and premium prices.
For shoppers, it brings back the thrill of (literally) having to go places to pick up something for others or themselves. Think about it, what better cure for retail blandness than to turn a Stockholm or Istanbul flagship store into a true destination again? Or what if every one of your stores/outlets/venues had its own unique experience and assortment?
Like aforementioned URBAN PRIDE, turning locations into destinations is something that will mainly benefit bigger brands, helping them become less cookie-cutter, less bland, as niche brands almost practice LIMITED LOCATIONS by default.
Examples from brands already having fun with LIMITED LOCATIONS:
• Fashion brand Bape sells some of its limited edition lines only in stores in the Kagoshima, Harajuku, Nagoya and Matsuyama regions of Tokyo.
• Burberry's Blue Label is a line of Burberry stores exclusive to Japan that features a more fitted, sassier version of Burberry styles.
• Le Labo fragrances, with fragrance boutiques in New York, LA and Tokyo, and mini-shops in department stores in cities like London, Las Vegas and Berlin, produces an exclusive scent for each major city it sells in, restricting the fragrance's availability to that city alone.
• At Heathrow's Terminal 5, a number of brands have designed exclusive products for their airside stores. Travellers can purchase a range of one-off items, including a pendant from Bulgari, a silver model of the terminal itself from Links of London, and an exclusive Krispy Kreme T5 doughnut.
5. MASS MINGLING
More people than ever will be living large parts of their lives online in 2010. Yet, those same people will also mingle, meet up, and congregate more often with other 'warm bodies' in the offline world.
In fact, social media and mobile communications are fuelling a MASS MINGLING that defies virtually every cliché about diminished human interaction in our 'online era'. So, forget (for now) a future in which the majority of consumers lose themselves in virtual worlds. Ironically the same technology that was once seen to be - and condemned for - turning entire generations into homebound gaming zombies and avatars, is now deployed to get people out of their homes.
Basically, the more people can get their hands on the right info, at home and on the go; the more they date and network and twitter and socialize online, the more likely they are to eventually meet up with friends and followers in the real world. Why? Because people actually enjoy interacting with other warm bodies, and will do so forever.
A list of MASS MINGLING facts and drivers:
• Social media is all about other people to begin with. From a recent Pew report: "When we examine people's full personal network - their strong ties and weak ties - internet use in general and use of social networking services such as Facebook in particular are associated with having a more diverse social network. Again, this flies against the notion that technology pulls people away from social engagement."
• The most popular and/or hyped online services, from Foursquare to Google Latitude to Loopt to FireEagle, are currently all about following, finding, tracking, connecting to, and ultimately (spontaneously) meeting up with interesting people (friends and strangers). For some users of these services, 'life-streaming' is now a reality, especially when combined with their blogs, tweets, and Facebook updates pages.
• Terabytes of online (local) content is about informing and alerting people to make the most of their time with others in the real world.
• Last but not least: The mobile web has bridged the gap between either being offline in the real world, or being online but in one location (mostly living rooms and offices). Thanks to a dozen years of predicting an imminent, mass-breakthrough of mobile internet, no one gets really excited about the prospect of no longer being stuck when online. However, it will dominate 2010, and it will fuel MASS MINGLING like there's no tomorrow, as online will be offline by default, and vice versa.
Next for MASS MINGLING will be even more impromptu, temporary meet-ups of strangers, mobs and crowds with similar interests, hobbies, political preferences, causes and grievances. Many of these (temporary) meet-ups will revolve around generating public attention, or getting something done. And here too, Twitter will lead the way (tweetmobs, anyone?).
The opportunity is obvious: Anyone involved with anything that helps people get and stay in touch, that gets people from A-Z, or that accommodates those people before, during or after meeting-up with others, should not only rejoice in MASS MINGLING, but make it even easier for customers to meet up in any possible way, too.
Now, there are thousands of MASS MINGLING examples as it is, so we'll stick with just one fun one that is still in 'concept':
• UK network Channel 4 announced the ongoing development of a Facebook app for the hit show 'Come Dine With Me'. The app will give fans of the show, in which amateur chefs hold competing dinner parties for one another, the tools to host their own parties with their Facebook friends.
That's a brief insight into the first 5 crucial consumer trends for 2010. Stay tuned for our next e-Sight where we look at the next 5 trends including 'Eco-Easy', 'Embedded Generosity', 'Profile Myning' and more. Meanwhile, enjoy the following selection of Superbowl 2010 ads.
Source: www.trendwatching.com. One of the world's leading trend firms, trendwatching.com sends out its free, monthly Trend Briefings to more than 160,000 subscribers worldwide.
Audi - Green Police
Doritos - House Rules
Budweiser - Lost
E-Trade - Girlfriend
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